MyDD :: Obama finally gets his bounce? [UPDATED]

Obama finally gets his bounce? [UPDATED]

by elrod, Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:25:52 AM EST

Today, the Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama leading by 5 with leaners, 49-44.

It's the first time Obama hit 49% and had a 5-point lead since July 8. It's worth noting that Obama hovered around 49 through the month of June after his post-primary bounce.

Two thoughts on this:

1) It's one day and could drop back tomorrow. That's happened before. But it did follow news coverage of the Berlin speech, which shows that it certainly didn't have a negative effect in last night's sample.

2) Voters care more about the economy than foreign affairs right now. They want Obama to talk about the economy and gas prices, and he hasn't in about a month. That, more than anything else, explains his mediocre poll numbers in the last several weeks. When he gets back to bread and butter issues next week, we'll get a better sense of where things really stand.

I honestly have no idea if this will be significant over the long haul, or just a one-day blip. But with all the chatter this morning about Obama's failure to get a bounce from the trip - before the trip is even over - it's nice to see some evidence of a bump.

Update [2008-7-25 13:22:50 by elrod]: Gallup concurs. Obama leads by 6. Both trackers showed a sizable overnight bump for Obama. Rasmussen also found 55% of Americans thought the Berlin speech was good or excellent, including 32% of Republicans. Will this hold? I don't know. But this trip has been a great success so far and Obama is well-positioned to pivot back to the domestic arena.

Tags: Rasmussen (all tags)

Permalink :: 57 Comments :: Post a Comment

After he gets home and focuses on domestic (2.00 / 2)

policy, like the economy, I think his numbers should pick up.

by catfish2 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:56:59 AM EST

In 1996, (2.00 / 4)

I remember at a certain point in the summer, I started to feel secure that Clinton was going to remain president. I was right.

That's it, baby; let's go win this election!

by Beltway Dem on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes... (2.00 / 1)

I remember that as well, it became apparent that there weren't many/any republicans that supported Sen. Dole and he was being left to flap in the wind.

by tonedevil on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:29:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (none / 0)

Obama needed to shore up his credentials on foreign policy, but you're right that it's not a top concern right now.

More commentary at the Twin Cities Daily Liberal

by Jeff Rosenberg on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:21:32 AM EST

Rasmussen (none / 0)

also is reporting that 55 percent of the American people believed Obama's speech in Berlin was either good or excellent. That included one-third of Republicans.

That's it, baby; let's go win this election!

by Beltway Dem on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:05:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (2.00 / 3)

I honestly think the only move that will provide Obama a discernible bounce at this point is adding Hillary to his presidential ticket. That's not to be construed as making a pitch for Hillary, just the way it seems to me.

by phoenixdreamz on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:26:35 AM EST

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (none / 0)

A bounce? Yes. But a sustainable one? That's the problem.

We like to forget that the GOP has been ready to fight Hillary Clinton for a long time. She could beat them in the end. But don't assume with all the quiet on the anti-Hillary front from the right that she wouldn't produce a backlash.

by elrod on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:29:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (2.00 / 3)

This excuse is so old.

"A bounce? Yes. But a sustainable one? That's the problem."

No the problem is whether his current bounce proves sustainable. The idea that any Republicans are going to vote for Obama is laughable.

by ottovbvs on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 02:37:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (none / 0)

The thing is...there aren't many Republicans...and there are fewer and fewer all the time.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:04:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (2.00 / 1)

Republicans always vote for the Dem candidate. And Democrats always vote for the Rep candidate. How many will switch, and to which candidate is the important question.

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:28:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (2.00 / 1)

its worth looking at these polls which show it to be a close race, until they do a ticket matchup between McCain/Romney, Obama/Clinton, and each time, the margin for Obama with Hillary against McCain/romney is huge, compared to individual matchups. Of course the GOP has talking points. But its not right to assume they'd be very effective. Everyone in America knows the talking points against the Clintons and has for years now. But it tells you something when the ticket still polls extremely well vs. McCain/Romney.

by Lakrosse on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The question is whether Clinton helps (2.00 / 1)

more with wayward Democrats than she hurts with Independents.

by Geekesque on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:47:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The question is whether Clinton helps (none / 0)

Totally agree. And the problem is, there is no real easy way to answer that question until November. Either way, it's a leap of faith. Either Obama assumes she is too much of a risk and he picks someone else, risking the continued alienation of some Hillary supporters, or he picks her and hopes the Independents aren't too ticked off to vote for him.

by ProgressiveDL on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 04:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The question is whether Clinton helps (2.00 / 3)

As if Obama isn't an enormous risk. A bigger risk than her in fact. But he grows on me every day. I'd say based on the polling so far he needs her more than she needs him. I'm still of the opinion she is the only one that supercharges his candidacy. All this serious pontificating about Clark, Nunn, Kaine, et al. Basically 90% of the country has never heard of them or if they have they've forgotten them.

by ottovbvs on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The question is whether Clinton helps (none / 0)

I sort of agree. She doesn't need him at all and he might need her some.

"Basically 90% of the country has never heard of them or if they have they've forgotten them."

Well, I think that is their biggest advantage over Clinton. Hillary as the choice risks energizing the lethargic Repubs. Maybe that's a myth, maybe it won't happen. But I'm not sure if it's a good risk right now. Another choice would be status quo, and the status quo is Obama winning.

by ProgressiveDL on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 08:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She absolutely needs Obama (none / 0)

to be President, so that the policies for which she advocates and the proposals she puts forth and the legislation she proposes as a Senator from NY will be embraced and signed.

Yes, Sen. Clinton needs President Obama, definitely, as does the country. She doesn't need him for any political reason having to do with a campaign, though, since her campaign has been suspended and she's formally backed him. Fantasy polling notwithstanding.

"This victory alone is not the change we seek -- it is only the chance for us to make that change." -- Nov. 4, 2008

by BobzCat on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:35:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She absolutely needs Obama (none / 0)

Well, yeah, that's sort of what I meant. I don't think she needs him for any political reason. Needing him to be president and needing him in general, are two different things. She doesn't need him to like her or do anything for her, but we are all (ok, well, not the wealthiest people) are better off with Obama as president.

by ProgressiveDL on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 12:34:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She absolutely needs Obama (none / 0)

Actually, wealthy people will do just fine with a more peaceful, more prosperous country, and probably a more stable world.

The greedy may suffer a bit. That's fine by me.

"This victory alone is not the change we seek -- it is only the chance for us to make that change." -- Nov. 4, 2008

by BobzCat on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 01:44:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She absolutely needs Obama (none / 0)

Well, in my book, wealthy (usually) = greedy. Bill Gates has been incredibly charitable in donating millions (billions?) of dollars. But let's not pretend that he got Windows on 90+% of computers by not being greedy.

by ProgressiveDL on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 02:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She absolutely needs Obama (none / 0)

Well, my sister lives in a two-doctor household that brings in a low six-figure income. I'd call them wealthy (and they'd agree) but I'd never call them greedy: they're hard-working and generous people who navigate a broken system in order to help others, while making a higher-than-average income in the process.

I know plenty of others who do pretty well, but I wouldn't say it was a result of greed.

Being in a financially rewarding profession doesn't make one inherently greedy. I have to disagree with the "usually" stipulation.

"This victory alone is not the change we seek -- it is only the chance for us to make that change." -- Nov. 4, 2008

by BobzCat on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 01:15:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Time will tell (2.00 / 3)

It would not surprise me in the least for Gallup to show a tie later today. Frankly, I don't see these weak numbers everybody is talking about. As always some are all over the place but the clear consensus is Obama is narrowly ahead. And this after being outspent on tv ads 3-1. He had to do this trip to burgeon his foreign policy credentials and now he can pivot back to the issue the electorate cares most about, namely the economy, at exactly the time when the vast majority are beginning to pay proper attention. He is in a good place right now.

by conspiracy on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:42:39 AM EST

Exactly (2.00 / 5)

What this trip does is effectively takes the foreign policy issue off the table. He's proven that he can deal with foreign leaders and present a positive image abroad. The question mark is erased.

When he gets back, it'll be all about the economy. Don't be surprised if there's another stimulus package upcoming.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

any bounces now dont matter (2.00 / 1)

what will matter is who he picks as VP, and the media treatment of that pick.

A lot of Americans dont like to think for themselves.

If his VP pick is seemed to be good by the media, then people will think its a good pick, if the media says its bad, a lot of people will think it is bad.

Overall though, its Obama's race to lose, McSame is a wreck, and a blubbering fool.

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:52:24 AM EST

Re: any bounces now dont matter (none / 0)

How the media treats Obamam's Veep?
Well just how do y9u think the media is going to treat Obamam's Veep?

by spirowasright on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (2.00 / 1)

The new GOP meme...
The Rovian agenda of attacking a strength is now being played out...
Obama's ability to draw large crowds..(like Germany)

Here is a quick clip..
http://mediamatters.org/items/2008072400 01?f=h_clips

and some typical Digby insight
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/p olitical-participation-real-fascism-by.h tml

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:07:49 PM EST

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? (none / 0)

These poll movements are meaningless. McCain moved down two points. That's the margin of error. Obama moved up 3. Two of that is within the margin of error.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:00:11 PM EST

July Poll watching will give you a heart attack (2.00 / 2)

And they don't really matter.
They go up they go down.
MAYBE start to pay attention in Sept.

Volunteer, Register new Voters, and organize
That is what matters in July.

by gil44 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama got a bounce in Gallup (none / 0)

as well. The lead is back up to six; every time he has gotten a bounce from gallup, it has dissipated. Let's hope it holds at six or more for awhile.

by Blazers Edge on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:14:27 PM EST

Slight of hand: Look over here, while over there.. (2.00 / 3)

The polls let the pundits yak and yak about something, they need a horse race, and just reporting that one campaign seems like a well tuned race car, and the other seems like the Graf Hidenburg is going to shoot the hell out of there
"The best political team" mantra.

STP-STP

Screw the polls, Screw the pundits.

My faith is, Axelrod is letting Obama give the road show, and watching the pundits flip around like fishes out of water, AND let the Republics obcess about that...

While he is quitely building an 50 STATE infrastracture to Register and GOTV, it's boring, and mundane, not something Candy Crowley or Andrea Mitchell is going to bother reporting on, when they can go glitz and glamour with planes and gaffes...

I think, it's a slight of hand like the old magicians trick.

The Republics and McCain keep looking at Barack, and wigging out about his press coverage, trying to whine about the media....

While they are missing the Army massing on their border.

The polls ain't showing these people, but I believe they are being staged even now.

IF he can pull it off, folks may write books about how Axelrod and his team ran this campaign.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:15:38 PM EST

Best part (none / 0)

IF he can pull it off, folks may write books about how Axelrod and his team ran this campaign.

And if they pull it off in a big way, they'll write a book about how you can win a Presidential election while refusing to become something you despise.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The attack that sticks (2.00 / 3)

The whole "surge" strategy. It's being widely accepted that McCain had some indepth and insightful strategy that "saved" Iraq. And it's complete horse sh1t.

1: The Suni awakening in the Anbar province.

2: Major Shiite militants laying down their arms.

3: (after the fact) a slight increase in troops primarily in Baghdad.

Violence is down

Seriously, is every fricken pundit and politician completely incapable of following cause and effect?

Senator Surge is winning with this line of BS, even being allowed to change the definition of SURGE. Now he's this insightful strategist that was in on the whole thing all along, even before the troop increase aka "surge."

The only insight he had and EVER tried to articulate is "more troops good." Little kids playing with plastic Soldiers can even follow that line of reasoning.

I can go on and on. But you know what? The General public only wants their fast food and fast information. They don't want to be bothered with all the complexities. I don't see a way to get past it.

Gobama!

by USArmyParatrooper on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:07:17 PM EST

Re: The attack that sticks (none / 0)

"I don't see a way to get past it."

I do. Fix the broken public school system and find a way for more people to go to college.

by ProgressiveDL on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The attack that sticks (2.00 / 1)

A common argument is also that it is generational. Kids today don't want quick soundbites, they look for more information. Perhaps not in the form of a book or a newspaper, but if you go on Wikipedia, you can learn all about something quickly.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The attack that sticks (none / 0)

Let me be clear. If you look on Wikipedia AND follow the references to credible sources, you can learn all about something.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:16:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice catch (none / 0)

All about the citations.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:39:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice catch (none / 0)

Were you the one on this site who introduced me to xkcd?

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:49:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dunno (none / 0)

This is the only pic I use from there. I'd only have introduced you if you followed the link from this pic.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 05:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dunno (none / 0)

Might have. Someone here did, and I'm very grateful to them.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dunno (none / 0)

Link? Help a brother out, eh?

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dunno (2.00 / 1)

XKCD - It's a web comic with a minimalist style with very nerdy, very funny jokes. Here's one I think we can all relate to far, far too well:

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:41:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dunno (2.00 / 1)

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That hasn't helped him much (none / 0)

Honestly, McCain yelling about how the surge fixed everything has made him look worse in the media. Hell, he even had to redefine what the surge is, and the media is actually pushing him on it.

The whole business with Maliki completely changed the narrative so voters care only about the future and not the past. Obama wants out. Voters want out. Maliki wants us out. McCain gives no indication he ever wants us out. Maliki kneecapped John McCain and now he's screaming like a bitter old man.

The only reason the race is close is that voters care about the economy and energy prices, and Obama hasn't talked about that in a month. That will change next week.

by elrod on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama finally gets his bounce? [UPDATED] (none / 0)

Rasmussen today:

Obama 49
McCain 43

The bounce continues

by BDM on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 10:00:02 AM EST

Saw that (none / 0)

It's almost where it was in the height of the post-primary days. The biggest lead he's ever had with leaners is 7, 50-43 and 49-42. Without leaners the biggest lead is 8.

by elrod on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 11:19:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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